Forecasting window
0
days of pipeline you can see
The part of your sales cycle fed by channels you control. Below 60 days you're planning quarter to quarter at best.
Tools/Calculator
Referral Dependency Calculator
Referrals built the business. Seven numbers you already have show how far they can carry it and what the dependency costs at exit. You leave with a diagnosis and an 18-month plan to reduce the risk, written for companies that sell to manufacturers and distributors.
Runs in your browser. Nothing you type is sent anywhere or stored.
- 1Start with the revenue basics
- 2How much of your revenue comes from referrals?
- 3Describe your sales cycle
- 4Size your referral network
Step 1 of 4
Start with the revenue basics
Total revenue over the last 12 months.
$
If you're not sure, start with 15 percent and adjust it later.
%
Step 2 of 4
How much of your revenue comes from referrals?
%
Step 3 of 4
Describe your sales cycle
Days from first conversation to a signed contract.
days
Typical first-year contract value for a new client.
$
Step 4 of 4
Size your referral network
People who could realistically send you business this year, from current and past clients to partners and former colleagues.
Of the referrals you get, the share that become clients.
%
Results
Your referral dependency assessment
Scaling ceiling
$0
a year, from referrals alone
The most revenue your current network can send you in a year at your close rate and deal size. If it's below your revenue, growth has to come from somewhere else.
Valuation gap
$0
between today and a diversified business
What a buyer discounts for pipeline that depends on referrals. Built on the EBITDA multiples below, which you can change.
What the multiples imply
- Today
- $0
- With predictable pipeline
- $0
- Difference
- $0on EBITDA of $0
Assumptions in use:
Change the assumptions
The assumptions behind these numbers
Two inputs are ours, not yours. They're rules of thumb rather than market data, so change them to what you see in your market and the results update.
We use 20 percent: one in five active relationships sends an introduction in a given year.
%
EBITDA multiple a buyer pays, by zone
Our rule of thumb: 2.5x in the red zone, 3x orange, 3.5x yellow, 4.5x green, against 5x for a business with diversified, predictable pipeline. Buyers in your market may pay more or less.
Diagnosis
Plan
Your 18-month plan
Four moves in order, sized to your zone. Treat the dates as a pace to hold rather than a deadline.